摘要：  到2016年，与专辑、歌曲或目录相比，流媒体（基于云）服务将成为人们获取音乐的一种更为重要的方式。这种转变的首要驱动力是越来越多的移动手持设备被当作为听音乐装置，特别是智能手机。曾被盗版内容所侵害的唱片公司、生产商和其他中间商也将重新冲流媒体服务中获利，同时他们也有机会从大量发生在他们收入基数以外的消费中赢利。

随着版权重要性继续不断减弱，录制音乐大众消费习惯也将继续演变。ABI最新的研究预测，到2016年，与专辑、歌曲或目录相比，流媒体（基于云）服务将成为人们获取音乐的一种更为重要的方式。这种转变的首要驱动力是越来越多的移动手持设备被当作为听音乐装置，特别是智能手机。

“移动音乐流媒体服务的用户订阅数量将在今年年末接近590万，”行业分析师 Aapo Markkanen说。“ABI研究所认为，到2016年这个数量将会扩大到16100万，这意味着年均复合增长率将接近95%。2012年亚太地区将成为使用移动音乐流媒体最大的区域。”

诸如Rhapsody、Melon和Spotify将成为这个由消费者、音乐公司和服务提供商共同推动的新形势的最大受益者。曾被盗版内容所侵害的唱片公司、生产商和其他中间商也将重新冲流媒体服务中获利，同时他们也有机会从大量发生在他们收入基数以外的消费中赢利。但这对于音乐艺术家来说忧喜参半：光靠卖录制音乐已经很难谋生了，但他们的作品却可以很快被流传开去。

大比特原创翻译，转载请注明。

原文出自ABI《Mobile Cloud-Based Music Streaming Services Will Be Mainstream by 2016》。

Mass consumption of recorded music continues to evolve， as ownership continues to diminish in importance. A new study from ABI Research forecasts that by 2016 streaming (cloud-based) services will become a more important form of access to music than owning albums， songs or tracks. This shift will primarily be driven by the growing use of mobile handsets， especially smartphones， as listening devices.

“The number of subscribers to mobile music streaming services is expected to approach 5.9 million by the end of this year，” says industry analyst Aapo Markkanen. “ABI Research believes that number will exceed 161 million subscribers in 2016， meaning a compound annual growth rate of nearly 95%. Sometime in 2012 the Asia-Pacific area will become the largest regional market for mobile music streaming.”

The biggest winners from these developments are likely to be consumers， and the vendors and the service providers enabling these new models， such as Rhapsody， Melon and Spotify. Record labels， producers and other middlemen whose businesses have been shaken by content piracy also stand to gain from streaming services as they have an opportunity to monetize a lot of consumption that would otherwise take place outside their revenue base. For musical artists， there are both positives and negatives: it will be more difficult to make a living by selling recorded music， but the barriers to wide product distribution are falling fast.